Originally Posted by OC 335i
I agree with everything except with better conditioning/gameplan I can see Carwin winning.
I think come time for the rematch I will be just as undecided. I actually had money on Carwin to win the first fight but Lesnar impressed me with his solid chin. Lesnar can definitely take the hits and although he looked tired in the 2nd round he looked comfortable. It seemed pretty clear he prepared for a 5 round war. This isn't to say that Lesnar can't be knocked out and it probably will happen some day. There is always a punchers chance for a KO in MMA, especially the HW division.
Carwin needs to evolve and learn new techniques and submissions to take advantage of his size and strength as Lesnar has done. Lesnar was in full mount, perfect position to execute some deadly ground and pound on a gassed Carwin but I think it was a combination of Lesnar being tired and showing Carwin respect so he took the win when he saw an opportunity for it. The submission he used combined with his freakishly huge body was a deadly combination, Carwin had no chance. I can see Lesnar using more submissions like this in the future, particularly this one when he feels like needs to pull of victory.
The prospect of Carwin evolving as a fighter and learning submissions is exciting too. His bread and butter will always be his stand-up game but in messy situations he will have the skill-set he needs to pull of the victory or at least be able to defend them.
I think Velasquez' best chance against Lesnar is to stand up and slowly pick him apart. He'll need to watch for the take-down because as soon as that happens it will be all over. Lesnar will wear him out and execute his wrestling and ground and pound until Velasquez is tired and fatigued. Who knows he might get choked out like Carwin. I think Cain's cardio is good and he has great speed so it should be interesting if he can keep it standing. Based on the last fight though, I still think Lesnar will destroy him. If Cain can pull off a KO or TKO I will be very impressed.