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| 09-10-2012, 05:37 PM | #23 |
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Lieutenant Colonel
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I share your concern. However, my own personal belief is that the economy is recovering and will take off after the first of the year, no matter who is president. So the real stakes in this election politically are very high. If I'm right it means either President Obama or President Romney will be taking credit for a long awaited economic recovery and the political rewards which will be significant will accrue to the winner of this years election and his party.
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| 09-10-2012, 06:04 PM | #24 | |
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Private First Class
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Yakev was pretty accurate in naming two of the most significant contributions to the BigBanks turned commodity-trading institutions turned toobigtoofail.
Repealing Glass-Steagel was the kicker that made the already large banks even larger trading firms betting with their own money. So as mortgages were the hot item, being backed too outrageous volumes by Fannie & Freddie - it was almost negligent too NOT be dealing in mortgage-backed securities since the profits were so damn good. But to say that Bush casued the housing downturn and foreafter financial collapse is COMICAL at best duplicitous at worst. His administration was warning Congress from 2001 forward (17 times in 2008 alone) about the problems with the GSEs (Fannie & Freddie) and the systemic issue they were causing: Quote:
That trope that Bush caused this is exactly that. All evidence proves otherwise.
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| 09-10-2012, 06:44 PM | #25 | |
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Lieutenant Colonel
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As far as the president's schmoozing ability it's a little ironic to me that you have these kinds of concerns especially since your party's nominee is (let's face it) not someone anyone even in your party really likes. It's an understatement to say he has a little trouble connecting with people. This is a man who had to rely on his VP pick to make himself legit to his own party. Doesn't speak well of his prospects for getting much done in Washington does it? I know you guys like to moc Obama on every front trying your best to turn the man and everything he does into a punch line. But it's really pretty simple. "Hope and Change" is catchy and sounds uplifting and inspiring. You guys just wish your candidate had thought of it. On the other hand "Take our country back" sounds regressive and fearful. And it also begs the question "just how far do we want to take this country back?" I guarantee not everyone is going to agree on the answer....
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| 09-10-2012, 07:52 PM | #26 | ||
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Second Lieutenant
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Alternatively, you can spend less than 100+ hours, spend more time with your kids, but you'd have to be extremely gifted to achieve in 80 hrs what your predecessors took 100 hours to do. If you are not so gifted, and your performance suffers, your stockholders might notice, and try and replace you. Quote:
Obama was presented as the great communicator, who could leverage his engaging personality to get the Hatfields and McCoys to sit down and have dinner together, and that has certainly not turned out to be the case at all. Going in, we had no other large organzation to gather data from, he ran nothing of that size or political complexity before, so voters had to take him at his word, and make judgements based on his public speaking, which he is very good at. In contrast, in Romney's case, he did take the olympics that were spiralling out of control, and wring a good final result out of it. Anyone who has dealt in any capacity with the International Olympic Committee knows that is all positively saturated with politics and conflicting personal agendas, and he (or his designates) were obviously able to deftly navigate that minefield and produce a great end result. Judging a book by it's cover may be a fools errand after all. |
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| 09-11-2012, 08:03 AM | #27 |
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Major
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Maybe if the GOP hadn't fillibustered a small business tax credit in June, there'd be a better jobs report.
More GOP Obstruction
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| 09-11-2012, 06:57 PM | #28 | |
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Second Lieutenant
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Reading that whole article, it appears that it's not just Republicans who are sitting on their hands instead of moving the ball down the field: "Republicans in the Senate did not necessarily object to the measure, but they protested Thursday after Democrats refused to allow votes on other amendments." "Democrats on Capitol Hill are hesitant to quickly hold votes on Obama’s proposal – and in fact are still drafting it -- even though polls show Americans support asking wealthier households to pay more. They conducted their own filibuster of McConnell’s offer as Obama is on the road, making his case for tax changes at campaign stops in critical swing states." Oh right, I forgot, when a Democrat gums up the works, that's not being intransigent, that's upholding his principles. |
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| 09-11-2012, 10:47 PM | #29 | |
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Enlisted Member
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These are the mechanical causes of the great recession in my humble opinion, and there's plenty of blame to go around: 1. Greenspan lowered interest rates to 1 percent and kept them there for about a year. This causes anything priced in dollars to appreciate. 2. Low rates = poor yields from munis and treasurys. So money managers turned to high-yield MBS. Very few, if any, did any due diligence on them, didn't understand the instruments or the risk involved. 3. Fund managers relied on the ratings agencies that placed AAA ratings on these securities, claiming they were as safe as U.S. Treasurys. 4. Derivatives became unregulated via the Commodity Futures Modernization Act (pushed by Phil Gramm and signed into law by Clinton in 2000). They are exempt from all oversight, counter-party disclosure, exchange requirements, state insurance regs and reserve requirements. This is how AIG was able to write $3 trillion in derivatives with no reserves against future claims. 5. The SEC changed the leverage reqs for Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns in 2004. The exemption replaced the 1977 net capitalization rule’s 12-to-1 leverage limit with unlimited leverage for these firms, who proceeded to ratchet their leverage to 20-, 30-, 40-to-1. 6. The banking system's compensation system is skewed in favor of short-term performance. 7. The demand for high yield led Wall Street to start bundling mortgages. Subprime mortgages were the highest yielding, in markets that were dominated by non-bank originators (who were exempt from most regulations - think AHM, for example). The Federal Reserve could have supervised them. Greenspan let them go. 8. “Innovative” mortgages were created to reach more subprime borrowers. These include 2/28 ARMs, interest-only loans, piggy-bank mortgages and neg-am loans. These mortgages defaulted in significantly higher numbers than traditional 30-year fixed mortgages. 9. Mortgage originators didn't have to hold onto the mortgages for long and got 'creative' with their standards. Not because of regulations (Dick Fuld even admitted that he was never forced to fund a mortgage) but, I mean, why worry about the quality of your product if you're just going to dump it on someone else in a year or so? They just had to hold them long enough to bundle them and sell them to the highest bidding chump as AAA paper. 10. Traditional banks set up automated underwriting systems to keep up. Which were gamed by loan officers paid on loan volume (as opposed to loan quality). 11. Glass-Steagall repealed in 1998. Already mentioned, enough said. 12. Many states had anti-predatory lending laws on their books (along with lower defaults and foreclosure rates). In 2004, the OCC federally preempted state laws intended to regulate mortgage credit and national banks. Afterwards, national lenders sold their crap in those states, leading to higher default and foreclosure rates in those states. I'll agree that Clinton bears some responsibility here due to Glass Steagal repeal and the CFMA of 2000. As does Bush with his ownership society and preemption, the ratings agencies, Congress, Greenspan, the SEC, etc, etc. How do we leave the political crap behind and address the mechanical causes of the problem, several of which are unchanged? |
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| 09-12-2012, 12:10 PM | #30 | |
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Second Lieutenant
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http://www.businessweek.com/the_thre...ons_drive.html As it turns out, it's harder to actually find this stuff now; it used to be on the website of the Department of Housing & Urban Development, and then it was removed. (likely because the whole housing fiasco made this approach seem embarrassing and absurd in hindsight). Fortunately, once something ends up in an internet search cache, even if you delete it, it never really goes away. In your list of causes, #8 is really what I am talking about here. Creating innovating mortgages to reach more subprime borrowers. Think about it, why on earth would any businessman want to do that, unless they were strongly nudged by some government program to do so? If you went back in time to the 80's or something before this nonsense was put out there, and you talked to any bank manager, do you really think they would say, "What we really need to do more is offer mortgages to people who really shouldn't have one in the first place because they have justifiably been labeled credit risks" As the finance professor and senior fellow at the Wharton school of Business says, "It strikes me as reckless to promote home sales to individuals in such constrained financial predicaments." I'm not sure we can leave the political crap out of it; its the promotion of political ideologies such as the socialist notion that everyone is equal in their ability to pay a mortgage, that is the genesis for policies like this in the first place. |
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| 09-13-2012, 02:07 PM | #31 |
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Enlisted Member
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What I'm saying is that the government never 'nudged' anyone to engage in that type of business - if they had, there'd be screaming evidence of it everywhere, far more concrete than an opinion piece without any specifics. The supporting info is so had to find precisely because it doesn't exist. Proof needs to come in the form of some statute that gives the government the mechanical ability to compel private entities into some action - OR, some wall street executives with evidence that their hands were forced somehow.
Regarding your comments on my 8th point, those subprime loans were created strictly out of the profit motive. If the lenders weren't making the fees they were making off them, they wouldn't have bothered with them. It really ends there. You appear to ignore the fact that the lenders didn't have to worry about maintaining the loans for more than a year or two because they were bundling them up and dumping them on wall street, effectively making it someone else's problem. I'd be happy to fault socialism as the cause of this if it was. Without any hard evidence, that's just not a reasonable conclusion here. (Not that it was caused by capitalism either.) |
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| 09-13-2012, 03:41 PM | #32 |
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Second Lieutenant
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This is the full PDF document referenced in the "opinion piece", to prove that this strategy did in fact actually exist, and is not a figment of the imagination of some businessweek writer.
http://confoundedinterest.files.word...5/nhsdream.pdf At 134 pages, it is lengthy to read thru, but you wanted specifics. Even if you skim it, you will see many concrete things the Clinton administration did to encourage high-risk, low income people into homes that they would previously fail to qualify for. This includes things like more flexible mortgage underwriting criteria, changes to insurance, lender processing time reductions, subsidies to reduce downpayments and mortgage costs, regulatory review of manufactured homes, building code reforms to expand supply of starter homes, any many others. It was not just a matter of Bill standing there any saying "gee, it would be great of more low-income folks had access to home ownership", and it was left at that. Granted, there is no hard-line legislation that commands lenders to give x number of loans to y number of high-risk people in a set period of time or anything, so you cannot say they were legally FORCED into offering those mortgages against their will. However, by removing and altering all kinds of impediments for these "subprime borrowers" to get loans (impediments that were there for very good reason), that certainly created incentives that didnt exist before. That, combined with many of the crazy changes you mentioned (like the ability to take that high-risk mortgage and dump it on someone else), all conspired to cause the collapse. If the government hadn't removed some obstacles and encouraged the wrong type of people to try and own their own home, then no matter how lucrative the profits could have been in the absence of Glass Steagall etc., the banks would have been unable to pursue that $$$ because the influx of new buyers wouldnt have been nearly as big. Yes, they could have still used their new found ability to pass the mortgages onto someone else, but that other party wouldnt have as many problems because there would have been far fewer defaults. |
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| 09-13-2012, 04:07 PM | #33 |
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Second Lieutenant
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Think of it this way: imagine the gov decides that cars are too expensive, the barriers to entry are too high. They want everyone to be able to have a new car. Employment will increase, people can take jobs where the busses dont run. So, they relax the rules that currently demand a certain level of crashworthiness, and things like airbags or ABS or traction control, etc. Removal of these impediments now enables GM to make a brand new (unsafe) car for $4000, which everyone can afford.
Of course, the gov is not compelling GM to make such cars, nor are they compelling poor people to buy them. All parties could choose to do nothing differently. Anyone who is not incredibly naive would realize that of course GM will start to take advantage of this, as it means more $ for them. Now the poor ditch their bus passes, without stopping to think about what it means to your face if your car does not have tempered safety glass and it hits something. After all, the president wouldnt let me put my family at risk, right ? Hooray, now we are one step closer to a classless society where everyone can own a new car. Of course, take a look at traffic fatality statistics in a few years time, and tell me the gov had nothing to do with it. |
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| 09-16-2012, 01:28 PM | #34 | |
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Enlisted Member
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| 09-22-2012, 09:20 AM | #35 |
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Major
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Good job voting no on the latest jobs bill for vets, GOP. Way to go senate republicans.
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2...in-the-senate/
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| 09-22-2012, 10:03 AM | #36 | ||
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Private First Class
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There are already 47 different job training programs running at $18billion dollars a year (link from GAO) in the Federal government with no transparency on the efficacy on most of them. So I guess another $1billion dollars planting trees and saving the 3-legged spotted turtle in the Conservation Corps is called Jobs now.. If you want a real example of a working job program for Veterans.. take a look at one that actually has results: 100,000 Jobs Mission Quote:
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| 09-22-2012, 10:29 AM | #37 | |
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Lieutenant
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| 09-22-2012, 11:59 AM | #38 | |
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Lieutenant Colonel
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