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      11-03-2012, 11:54 PM   #1
kmarei
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Exclamation Guess the electoral college Result of this election :)

Im guessing:
Obama 290 vs Romney 248
Let's please keep this as just predicting the scores
Not a bashing of either candidate
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      11-04-2012, 08:56 AM   #2
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Your forecast is entirely reasonable. As someone who supports the current system and would never support a popular vote, I'm afraid your totals may be very close. To complicate matters though, I believe in the popular vote, it will be Romney by at least 5 points. I remain hopeful but I suspect the electoral college vote will go against my guy. Too bad for him, too bad for us.
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      11-04-2012, 01:03 PM   #3
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Romney 289
Obama 249
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      11-04-2012, 01:05 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OldArmy View Post
Your forecast is entirely reasonable. As someone who supports the current system and would never support a popular vote, I'm afraid your totals may be very close. To complicate matters though, I believe in the popular vote, it will be Romney by at least 5 points. I remain hopeful but I suspect the electoral college vote will go against my guy. Too bad for him, too bad for us.
I just don't think there is any way that anything > than a 1% difference in PV equates to that big of a swing in the EC.

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      11-04-2012, 04:10 PM   #5
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I don't believe that it will be decided by the electoral college. I think that it will be like 2000 and end up in the Supreme Court.
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      11-04-2012, 04:26 PM   #6
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Two scenarios...
O 303 R 235 or
O 332 R 206
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      11-04-2012, 06:47 PM   #7
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Electoral college:

Obama 306
Romney 231

Popular vote:

Obama 50.1
Romney 48.9
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      11-04-2012, 07:15 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by mspeasl View Post
I don't believe that it will be decided by the electoral college. I think that it will be like 2000 and end up in the Supreme Court.
Keep in mind 2000 was so close
Florida basically decided the election
I think there will be enough states in the Obamas campy this time, that it won't make sense to file lawsuits in multiple states
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      11-04-2012, 07:18 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OldArmy View Post
Your forecast is entirely reasonable. As someone who supports the current system and would never support a popular vote, I'm afraid your totals may be very close. To complicate matters though, I believe in the popular vote, it will be Romney by at least 5 points. I remain hopeful but I suspect the electoral college vote will go against my guy. Too bad for him, too bad for us.
I still think its strange that someone gets the most votes, and is not the president
Like in Gores case
I think ideally, It would be a mix of both systems
Electoral college first , unless the popular vote is very close
That you need some sort of tie breaker
shoot out if you will
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      11-04-2012, 09:06 PM   #10
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I'm going with the University of Colorado - Boulder scientists that have correctly forecasted the winner of every Presidential Election since 1980 (just updated today):

Romney 330
Obama 208

That should be landslide territory.

With the early voting returns from battleground states coming in favorable to Romney, much lower for Obama's than his 2008 run, and Republicans traditional advantage on voting day - it's starting to look really good.
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      11-04-2012, 09:14 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by rgrovr View Post
I'm going with the University of Colorado - Boulder scientists that have correctly forecasted the winner of every Presidential Election since 1980 (just updated today):

Romney 330
Obama 208

That should be landslide territory.

With the early voting returns from battleground states coming in favorable to Romney, much lower for Obama's than his 2008 run, and Republicans traditional advantage on voting day - it's starting to look really good.
Wow
Their prediction is pretty much Romney winning almost all the swing states
That goes against pretty much all the polls I've seen
Time will tell I guess

I just hope it's not another anti climatic ending like 2000
When we all went to bed still clueless on who the next president was
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      11-04-2012, 09:35 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kmarei View Post
Wow
Their prediction is pretty much Romney winning almost all the swing states
That goes against pretty much all the polls I've seen
Time will tell I guess

I just hope it's not another anti climatic ending like 2000
When we all went to bed still clueless on who the next president was
For some perspective - here is a great factual read about Polls and how they fly in the face of reality:

How Carter Beat Reagan

You'll see how eerily close to this year election 1980 actually is. This doesn't equate Romney to Reagan, but Obama is a lot closer to Carter on the position of the economy and foreign policy than most folks care to admit.
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      11-04-2012, 11:19 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rgrovr View Post
For some perspective - here is a great factual read about Polls and how they fly in the face of reality:

How Carter Beat Reagan

You'll see how eerily close to this year election 1980 actually is. This doesn't equate Romney to Reagan, but Obama is a lot closer to Carter on the position of the economy and foreign policy than most folks care to admit.
Interesting, if a little biased
Thing is
It's not just the "bleeding heart liberal media" that has Obama ahead in some of the swing states, it's the good old "take America back" right wing conservative polls as well
I'm not a fan of looking at individual polls
I like the polls on real clear politics, because it shows ALL the polls, whether democrat, republican, or neutral, as well as the average of all those
If you look at the average, you're getting a pretty unbiased view
I'm expecting Romney to get virginia, and Florida
And i' expecting obama to get Ohio, and Wisconsin
If he gets those, and keeps Pennsylvania, all he needs is one more state
Where Romney needs to win almost all the swing states.

I still find it shocking that I can't read unbiased news in this country
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      11-04-2012, 11:34 PM   #14
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Electoral Projections from Final Polls
Dave Wissing notes that if final polls from The Economist/YouGov are correct, President Obama will win 303 electoral votes.

The final Reuters/Ipsos polls suggest Obama will win 294 electoral votes.

The final Public Policy Polling surveys point to an Obama landslide of 332 electoral votes.
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      11-05-2012, 06:01 AM   #15
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Electoral College: Obama 290, Romney 248

Popular Vote: Obama 51, Romney 49
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      11-05-2012, 08:49 AM   #16
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      11-05-2012, 09:41 AM   #17
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Polls are to be taken with a big grain of salt...

I have never been polled or surveyed on who I may vote for. I casted my early vote Saturday, so right there we have at least two people (my girlfriend and I are in the same boat) that were obviously not included in the "polling numbers" but casted votes already.

I'm sure there are a lot of others in the same situation.
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      11-05-2012, 11:38 AM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Templar View Post
Polls are to be taken with a big grain of salt...

I have never been polled or surveyed on who I may vote for. I casted my early vote Saturday, so right there we have at least two people (my girlfriend and I are in the same boat) that were obviously not included in the "polling numbers" but casted votes already.

I'm sure there are a lot of others in the same situation.
yes but polling doesn't mean you ask everyone
it means you ask enough people, that you have small snapshot of the population

my only remark is if polls were so incorrect, if we take the University of Colorado - Boulder prediction, why would news channels/newspapers spend millions doing them?
they are not 100% correct, but they are close to reality. especiallly if you average many polls.
a few mistakes here and there will be corrected by a a large enough sample, which you get when you average 5 or 6 polls for example

just like if i had asked you and your wife, i would have predicted a romney victory
but if i had asked you, your GF, and 20 other people, i might be closer to reality
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      11-05-2012, 11:47 AM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kmarei View Post
yes but polling doesn't mean you ask everyone
it means you ask enough people, that you have small snapshot of the population

my only remark is if polls were so incorrect, if we take the University of Colorado - Boulder prediction, why would news channels/newspapers spend millions doing them?
they are not 100% correct, but they are close to reality. especiallly if you average many polls.
a few mistakes here and there will be corrected by a a large enough sample, which you get when you average 5 or 6 polls for example

just like if i had asked you and your wife, i would have predicted a romney victory
but if i had asked you, your GF, and 20 other people, i might be closer to reality
True, it is just a sampling, which is exactly why it shouldn't be taken so seriously. I don't take any prediction or poll seriously, no matter what their streak or history is.

I have a feeling they don't really poll that many people, and the "sample" they take is very small indeed.

As far as who is going to win, only actual votes count, and we won't know the answer until tomorrow.
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      11-05-2012, 12:11 PM   #20
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Originally Posted by Templar View Post
True, it is just a sampling, which is exactly why it shouldn't be taken so seriously. I don't take any prediction or poll seriously, no matter what their streak or history is.

I have a feeling they don't really poll that many people, and the "sample" they take is very small indeed.

As far as who is going to win, only actual votes count, and we won't know the answer until tomorrow.
yes but if you take enough samples, you get an idea of the outcome
if there are 100 people
and each sample questions 8 people
after you've done 5 or 6 polls, (assuming you're not asking the same 8 people everytime) you would have an idea of almost half the population.
so one poll is more of a guestimate
5 or more polls is a clearer picture of the truth
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      11-05-2012, 01:58 PM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kmarei View Post
yes but if you take enough samples, you get an idea of the outcome
if there are 100 people
and each sample questions 8 people
after you've done 5 or 6 polls, (assuming you're not asking the same 8 people everytime) you would have an idea of almost half the population.
so one poll is more of a guestimate
5 or more polls is a clearer picture of the truth
True. I agree with why the polls and predictions are there, but there have been surprises in the past. In a race this close, I just don't trust the polls to be as accurate as you'd think.

I'll wait until tomorrow to see what happens
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      11-05-2012, 02:04 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by Templar View Post
True. I agree with why the polls and predictions are there, but there have been surprises in the past. In a race this close, I just don't trust the polls to be as accurate as you'd think.

I'll wait until tomorrow to see what happens
exciting for us, nerve wracking for them

i know i'd hate to be either of the 2 candidates today!
i am sure neither candidate will get any sleep tonight

may the best man win
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