Guess the electoral college Result of this election :)

[txz4]

Originally Posted by kmarei

one question
if the liberal media really is skewing the polls to show obama ahead
doesn't that actually hurt him?
if i am a democrat, and i hear my guy is ahead in all polls
i'll probably sit on my ass and do nothing, since i know he'll probably win anyway

on the other hand if i knew he was behind, i'd go vote to help him out

you're 100% right!

Thus my conclusion, is that they just arent aware of it. Keep in mind most of these media outlets are located in very very liberal areas. It would be bizarre to them if it was even a 1-1 ratio, let alone republican turnout being higher.

Dont get me wrong, the republican turnout vs democrat turnout wont be what it was in the midterm however, it will be significantly closer to the midterm turnout ratio than the 2008 turnout ratio. Obama vs Bush (anyone with "R" next to their name) was an easy one to see the turnout, while the midterm was also pretty easy to spot if you lived outside of NYC or the liberal media.

This will be a very close race, i think. Obama has a HUGE following especially considering the state of the economy etc. We know where his base stands and where they will always stand. Same goes for the tea party crowd... It didnt matter if Obama did a good job with the economy, those people wouldnt agree with the mechanism.

SO that leaves us with 3rd party, independents, and those who voted in 08 for not Bush and 12 for Romney/not Obama (dont see many McCain voters going the other way now).

3rd party- Obama has lost a SIGNIFICANT amount of the youth vote to the libertarian party. Im in school now and was in 08, there wasnt this kind of interest in 3rd party then as now. wars, legalization of weed, etc. all hit hard with the youth. Not to mention those that graduated during the recession (again like i did) might not be so happy with what the reality of the job market currently is, vs what was thought to be.

Independents- there will likely be a trade of some Mccain to some Obama and vice versa, however based on most internals we see the biggest share going from Obama to Romney which i think is pretty much accurate.


The real question will be the breakdown of the EC. Popular vote will go Romney and this much is very clear. The EC however is a different story that is being written as we speak.

To answer the OP i would prefer a Romney win and i think its a strong possibility however, its very hard to tell. I would say its a near tossup with edge going to Romney.

Think about it this way, if you were to just pick a channel at random without knowing anything about politics or browsed Reddit politics, equally unaware. One under those perimeters would likely see an Obama sweep. I believe thats the phenomenon going on right now, perceived information based on limited interactions create difference between reality and painted picture.


P.S. 1000 Posts!!!! haha

[xbook]

Originally Posted by incantana

Landslide Romney. Liberal media is in denial.

Where's that landslide you were predicting?

[kmarei]

The polls were wrong though
They favored Romney based on the results I'm seeing
Obama will have a bigger lead than expected

[Templar]

Originally Posted by kmarei

The polls were wrong though
They favored Romney based on the results I'm seeing
Obama will have a bigger lead than expected

What? You were just in here saying polls favored Obama. This shouldn't have been a surprise.

[secretsquirrel]

Once again Nate Silver was right. It looks like he got all 50 states right this time. Last election he was 49/50. The pollsters and media wanted to keep this race appearing close and their was so much talk about national polls. It was all a joke.

[kmarei]

Originally Posted by Templar

What? You were just in here saying polls favored Obama. This shouldn't have been a surprise.

Yes
But the polls didn't show him winning every single swing stage
I never expected that
Neither did all the polls
He's going to have over 330 electoral votes
Who guessed that?

[Templar]

Originally Posted by kmarei

Yes
But the polls didn't show him winning every single swing stage
I never expected that
Neither did all the polls
He's going to have over 330 electoral votes
Who guessed that?

Wrong again. He didn't win NC. That was a swing state...

[kmarei]

Originally Posted by Templar

Wrong again. He didn't win NC. That was a swing state...

Oh I'm sorry
He won 7/8
Does that change the outcome?

I was going by this chart
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/eca...#?battleground
But I guess that's "liberal media" that's biased
Biased, but pretty correct

[Templar]

Originally Posted by kmarei

Oh I'm sorry
He won 7/8
Does that change the outcome?

I was going by this chart
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/eca...#?battleground
But I guess that's "liberal media" that's biased
Biased, but pretty correct

No it doesn't change the outcome, but that doesn't make your statement true. And it has nothing to do with the media, you just can't read.

[dominick]

wow, mad bro??

[xbook]

Originally Posted by Templar

No it doesn't change the outcome, but that doesn't make your statement true. And it has nothing to do with the media, you just can't read.

Dude, calm down. Obama pretty much did win all of the swing states. You are splitting hairs at this point. Shhhh, grab a beer, pet your dog, read a book, go find your happy place.

[Sam335ix]

Originally Posted by dominick

wow, mad bro??

He already tried that s with me too... Nate Silver is God, his prediction is amazing. Now if he could help my betting on NFL to improve lol.

[Templar]

I'm not mad at all. This wasn't a shock to me, I am pretty sure I've been saying Obama will win for a long time now.

[dominick]

I'm here alllllllll the time. I just hold my excitement till the end. And it is over. Obama 4 More years.

[incantana]

Originally Posted by xbook

Where's that landslide you were predicting?

Looks like I was wrong.

[dr335is]

Originally Posted by incantana

Looks like I was wrong.

So far EVERYTHING you said in the Politics section was WRONG...
I will follow you for 2016 and make some big $$$

Stop watching FOX and use your own brain. It was soooo obvious it will end exactly this way...

[Sam335ix]

Originally Posted by dr335is

So far EVERYTHING you said in the Politics section was WRONG...
I will follow you for 2016 and make some big $$$

Stop watching FOX and use your own brain. It was soooo obvious it will end exactly this way...

Lol I couldn't say it better, him and his side kick were so cocky and rude to everyone.

[KingOfJericho]

But the polls, but the polls! This really proves how worthless they really are. How accurate could they ever have been with them only calling land lines? Who the hell has a land line (that they answer)? Old people...

[M_Six]

Kudos to Obama and camp.

And now back to our movie, Trouble Ahead, Trouble Behind: The Life and Times of Casey Jones.

[secretsquirrel]

Originally Posted by Vertigo//SD

You win the prize, whatever that is.

[incantana]

Originally Posted by dr335is

So far EVERYTHING you said in the Politics section was WRONG...
I will follow you for 2016 and make some big $$$

Stop watching FOX and use your own brain. It was soooo obvious it will end exactly this way...

I was wrong about the outcome. Why would this make me wrong about the politics? 5 million less women are working now than in 2008. blacks are at 15% unemployment. The national debt has doubled. Even if obama received every vote this facts would still be facts.

Whats done is done. I hope he kills it now. I just want the economy to do well again. 4 more years at the apple. no excuses.

[pt]

I knew Obama would take it (saw that coming as soon as Ryan's camp leaked his non-VP post election plans). I just thought it would be closer than 332-206.